Predicting economic cycles has significant practical applications in both eco
nomic policy and finance. However, developing successful prediction models has
been very difficult because of the highly dynamic nature of modern economies.
The robust growth of productivity and population in the developed world in the
first three decades after the Second World War included a few oil shocks and
periods of high inflation that feel like ancient history in today’s environments,
which features low growth, low inflation, and an increased role for governments
